Wednesday May 6, 2026
www.thenewsdesk.ng
The Chartered Risk Management Institute of Nigeria (CRMI) has warned that Nigeria may face significant oil market risks following the decision of the United Arab Emirates to exit the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
In a policy advisory issued on Tuesday, the institute said the development could trigger global oil market volatility, weaken supply coordination among producing nations and heighten geopolitical tensions, with direct implications for Nigeria’s economy.
The advisory, signed by CRMI Registrar/Chief Executive Officer, Victor Olannye, described the UAE’s exit as a “andmark shift in global oil governance capable of disrupting long-standing production alliances.
According to Olannye, key risks include a potential breakdown in OPEC cohesion, increased oil price volatility, energy supply chain disruptions, macroeconomic uncertainty and the possibility of a contagion effect, with other member states considering similar exits.
The UAE had last month announced that it is quitting the Opec and Opec+ groups of major oil producing nations in May after nearly 60 years of membership.
The UAE said its decision would help it meet growing global energy demand in the long term after recent investments to boost its production capacity.
But while noting that Nigeria could benefit from increased production flexibility and potential expansion in market share, the institute cautioned that such gains may be offset by exposure to unstable oil prices, reduced protection from coordinated supply management and heightened global competition.
“Stakeholders must reassess their risk management frameworks and strengthen institutional resilience to navigate the evolving geo-economic landscape,” Olannye said.
The institute advised corporate organisations to adopt dynamic hedging strategies, diversify business portfolios and strengthen internal risk controls.
It also urged financial institutions and investors to reassess energy-related exposures, improve risk disclosure and deepen portfolio diversification.
CRMI called on government to strengthen fiscal buffers, accelerate economic diversification and intensify efforts towards renewable energy transition to reduce dependence on crude oil revenues.
It also encouraged risk professionals to upskill in geopolitical risk analysis, energy economics, scenario planning and predictive analytics to better anticipate emerging global shifts.
The institute warned that the exit of the UAE after nearly six decades of membership could weaken OPEC’s traditional influence in stabilising oil markets, potentially ushering in a more market-driven pricing regime and accelerating the global shift towards alternative energy sources.
“The Institute anticipates possible scenarios, including fragmentation of global oil governance structures, increased market-driven oil pricing mechanisms, and acceleration of global energy transition initiatives” he added
*TheGuardian
